Karaoke Forums

Anyone here besides me who got hit in the markets this last month?

I took a 3K loss before I dove out...I was totally in international stocks when the whole market went south.

Things are looking up so far this morning, so I'm back in but just in the international funds....The pundits are saying last month's losses are nothing compared to what will happen later this year.

Who here believes them?..and why?

Yep, but with a good diversification, it didn't really kill me, even though it did hurt.
FDIVX 28% international. Took a hit there, but stayed in.
We'll see. I don't jump too much between funds. When it hit a low, I like buying.
I don't believe anyone as such. Gut feeling comes to play. Anything can happen. Depends on the interest rate increases/decreases. International (China/Japan) are starting to boom.

It's only my opinion but there's so much volatility in the markets these days that I'm reluctant to call them "investments".  

I believe that much of the reason for that is that the partial deregulation of the banking industry back in the 70s and then the total deregulation that happened in the 80s unintentionally changed the way the market works.  Prior to that the market was, for the most part, out of reach for us common folk.  Disintermediation and the spectacular growth of the mutual fund market that resulted put a lot of power into the hands of the funds managers.  It also caused funds to become intensely competitive.  To that point investing had largely been thought of as a long-term game.  Income was great but long-term appreciation was really the goal.  Suddenly, the fund managers began to take a very short-term view because they had to to post performance numbers every quarter and every quarter had to be better than the last one.  And they were often in a position to dictate how companies did their planning.  That became short-term as well.

Add to that the fact that the funds available for investment far outstripped the available investment opportunities and a lot of IPOs got funded when maybe they shouldn't have.

Now the market is truly international.  And the funds available for investment continue to grown.  Unfortunately there are a lot of unstable governments out there.  Many of them do not have the kinds of investor safeguards that we have in the U.S.  And as we have all found out, even the safeguards built into our markets don't always work.  

So we've still got a huge amount of money chasing far too few quality investments.  Market volatility is probably the least onerous of the consequences of 30 years of reduced regulation, increased risk taking and the myth that our markets can self-police themselves effectively.  

I know this is terrilby "bearish" but at this point I regard the markets as places where one should only invest $ that one can afford to lose.  It's still better than Las Vegas but not a lot.  Unfortunately, there aren't many alternatives that provide safety and high yield without a lot of work on the part of the investor.

But that's only my opionion.

Larry

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"Life is too short for diet soda and lite beer"

That was a great perspective.....makes me rethink a few things.

....Jesus!, Just when things start to recover, North Korea starts blabbing about a missle test and Japan/Asian stocks go south!

Keith, you've hit on a very important point.  One of the oldest economic theories around is a corollary to the Law of Supply in Demand.  It says that the value of any commodity rises when continued supply MIGHT BE threatened by unstable environment (gasoline prices are a good example).  

Given the continued political instability in the world, it should come as no surprise that the stock market is continually ajusting to what it perceives as threats or reduction in threats.  At this point the marke seems to have a tendancy to adjust based on anticipation of upcoming events.  Then it re-adjusts based on what actually happened.  So a successful investor needs to be something of a crystal ball gazer.  Even the so-called experts are often fooled.  Puts me in mind of the weatherman around here.  He's not right very often either.

The other thing I've noticed is that the market often responds in what might seem to be surprising ways, but which are easily understood in hindsight.

For example; bad news isn't always bad news; good news is not always good news.  What's up with that.

If the market expects a company to have lower profits during a quarter it adjusts ahead of time.  So when expectations are met and the bad news is confirmed it's not really so bad because the market correction has already taken place.  So the bad news really isn't so bad.  

Conversely, if the market expects higher earnings the market adjusts.  When expectations are met the good news isn't really that good.

But good news can, in fact, be bad news.  If the market expects earnings to decline the market adjusts accordingly.  If earnings actually improve it's a bad sign because the market corrected itself in the wrong direction.  There is often a "penalty" because it signals that the analysts may not have known what they were talking about.  This defies logic because the analysts aren't part of the company.  They cannot affect operating results.  They can only predict.  So public company's are sometimes put in a position where they feel a certain amount of pressure to meet analysts expectations simply to support their stock price.

I believe that the short term thinking that causes public companies to chase analysts expectations has an overall negative effect on the market and keeps companies from doing effective long-range planning.  Traditionally it's the long range planning the decision making that lead to strength in most operations.

But we live in an "instant gratification, short term" world and I don't see any way to change that.

The preceding has been my usual pontification and is has the potential for being worth what it cost the reader.  Reprints are not available. Invitations to stay overnight with attractive, willing and wayward girls will be given instant and thorough scrutiny.

Larry

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"Life is too short for diet soda and lite beer"

I have all of my money invested in bills.    Electric bill, gas bill, water bill.......

Good one, Big Dog.    :worship:

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"Life is too short for diet soda and lite beer"

"Good News", "Bad News" is many times indistinguishable when it comes to trying to understand the market.  You many times have to think outside the box so to speak.

For example, back when the Trade Towers were hit,  Besides being upset about the lives lost and of course very concerned with the firefighters, the other half of my brain begin thinking about airlane stock.  I researched all the airline stocks and found one small regional company that had been leading the pack up to that day.  It was only about a $15.00 stock at that time.  Day after the disaster it went to $3.00 a share.  So,...I bought some knowing that like all things we as humans go on. And eventually people would be flying again.  30 days later it climbed back up to $12.

A part of me felt bad for taking advantage of a financial situation which was the result of many deaths.  But then I had to reason with myself to separate the financial world from the real world.

One other aspect that I have come to realize is that some people think it unamerican to by foreign stocks.  "Keep the money at home" is the thoguh.  However we truly live in a world market now.  And many of the "American" companies do beneift by companies across the sea.  I drive a Nissan.  Used to that would be looked at as unamerican.  Both with one of the largest Nissan plants right here in Tennessee, I kind of feel I am helping, keep jobs; not lose them.

One area I have begun to do a little investing in is China and Japan.  These countries (mainly China) have learned that in order to prosper, they have to get involved in world markets.  This is good because the more they do, the more democratic in nature they become.  AND less likely to want to start a war knowing that the fall of one country can now be like dominoes world wide and come back to haunt them.

A few stocks I think worth checking into.  Japan- MTU, largest bank in Japan.  Finally getting their act together.  They have finally turned the corner that our economy did several years ago.

China - CHL   Mobile phone service.  Do you have any idea how many people are in China?  It also pays a dividend.  Like wise TOMO.  Largest China internet service.  Same question bears repeating.  As the world market grows communisim in China dies everyday.

I've rambled enough.

Kelly

For what it's worth, this is my take.

You have a full time job.    Wallstreet investors have full time jobs.    Most of the time they can't call every investment right.   SO what makes you think that you can do better than the full time investors?    They went to school and became licensed to do what they do.    You cannot come close to that, if you have your full time job and other karaoke distractions.   A fool acts as his own attorney, what is a partime investor?

A fool?....I must be...I lost another 1K today...well, if you figure it was only part of what i gained earlier this year, then i didn't actually lose anything....still, i hate to give back any gains.

What makes me THINK I can do better than hiring someone to do it for me?   Probably the same reason you THINK you're the best KJ in your area.  

Without going into alot of detail I will say this.  I'm making more with my money in the stock market than I am with any savings account or CD's.  

"Fulltime" investors or financial investors want you to think just that.  They want you to think that you don't have the ability to make smart investments.  But you can.  

A fool?  Okay. You can call me a fool.  But don't knock the ability of the "partime investor."  Why do you think there are so many commercials on TV now for online trades. Some as low as $4.99.  The same information the BIG boys have always used is now available to us "little" people.  If people weren't making money with online trading, than all these companies wouldn't be scrambling to get your business.

Can you lose money?  Sure, only if you get crazy and don't do your homework.

Yep.  Before I retire I hope to be a REAL BIG FOOL!

Kelly

Hang on!...some of what he said rand true......DISTRACTIONS

I have been very distracted since the wife moved back in and we started buying working withadditional horses....I negleted my investments and lost about half of what Ii had gained YTD.......

So i'm thinking i need to stop trying to ride the edge so much and back off into less risky and volatile stuff, and also not neglect the wife n horses......In other words i need to find a profitable balance.

I truly agree Keith. BUT, you have to admit it doesn't take a big investment firm to help you turn a bigger percentage of gain than what you can get off a CD or savings.

You do have to pay attention.  But with a balanced port of shares you can have some losers and still eak out a modest 6 -8% gain per year.  And yes distarctions or getting greedy can hurt.  You have to do your homework.

Kelly

My point was, that some years ago there was a market crash that noone or very few wallstreeters saw coming.   Many, many people, working stiffs lost a lot of money.    I heard some at work saying they lost upwards to $25,000 and more.   It hasn't been the first crash ever.     The money you invest better not be food money, it should only be money that you can afford to lose.      I don't personally know anyone that can afford to lose $25,000.     Especially KJs.

I fail to see the relationship with being the best karaoke.

Don't forget that many of these "brokerage" firms work on commission,  they often make suggestions that ARE NOT entirely in the best interest of their client..  I've been switched to stocks that enable them to get higher commission. You think these broker's are entirely honest ?   They are doing it to make a living too as you say, which means to optimize prophet's they aren't totally open..



Big deal, ever hear the cliche,  "If you want a job to get done fast, give it to the busiest person" ? or "A hot enough engine burns anything" ?  Busy mind often means more active working mind... The person who is playing many simultaneous chess games, is often MORE astute than the person who has alot of free time. The mind is just alot more active and aware... How many teacher's have their Education certificates and can't really teach ? Quite a few.   How many kid's graduate with a Master's in psychology and have no ability to read people ?  How many have degree's in Philosophy, Economics, over three years of medical school, and end up hanging in Karaoke rooms ?  There's such a thing as a "knack",  Often the most successful DO NOT gain much from the conventional education... That doesn't teach you people sense,  it's doesn't teach you about life on the street's, it doesn't offer you "sage"..  Bill Gates dropped out've college,  Is he any worse off for NOT having the BS  degree ?  Bush got his degree from a good school.  Do you believe that if he wasn't a child of a dynasty he'd have even gotten into that University ?  Do you think he passed 4 years fair and square ? or because of family endowments, and wealthy alumni his prof's were told  "Let this one slide by"...  The answer is the later btw !

While conventional schooling can be an asset.. MANY of the most successful in our culture don't have it...  They are creative, hard working, and have drive.. and ability in an area...  That's what it takes !  School teaches you what to look for, not how to open your eyes.  Many blind fools exist in our nation today with degree's because they assume "Pay money for a few years of school, and you've got life by the balls".. It's not how things work..

My own observation, (having slept in quite a few corners of the barn) is that the strongest, and smartest people aren't the ones handed the money to get luxurious degree's, If a person want's to learn something, he/she doesn't need "school" to learn. You can learn at the public library,  you can learn online, similarly the degree often means very little, you can have tremendous knowledge, and be a 4th grade dropout, ability in specific areas might even be hampered by "School".... The smartest people are out somewhere on the streets surviving, reading people (not books on how to read people), they are hustling money, even food... and might or might not yet decide to get a degree... Thing is,  many don't really need one, while some are in classrooms, the innovators are someplace else creating the non-mainstream concepts that can make the most money... They are more creative and don't need to spend money for school getting an education in an area they aren't cut out to excel in, or get mainstream jobs in traditional areas most never make terrific money in anyway..

School is for the average... In some area's it helps... A person can gain more knowledge out've one year hanging on the internet,  than many get in 16 years of "school" assuming a person is zealous and ready to learn.  Our public schools for some,  are just babysitting venues..

Point being,  there's truth to "School is wasted on the young" in many cases.. Just like you feel... "How can you absorb enough investment knowledge with Karaoke going on, and a job in a different area", many believe "How can a kid absorb a formal education when he's discovering the opposite sex, and drugs and alcohol, as well as how to be away from mom and dad for the first time"...

If Kelly is ready to give thought to investment now,  If Keith is getting interested in this area as an adult... (Just as my mom became a wiz in her 60's in an area we thought she had no skill-she was interested and ready).. These are often the best times for the sleeping giants to get into areas, and learn about something, when THEY are receptive to learning.. My mom, little math skill, no formal training, is EXCELLENT in anticipating the stock market.. This is a woman who couldn't pass a basic accounting course, and understand a balance sheet 30 years ago, problem was, her teacher's didn't know how to inspire her in a dry area, they had the education, but didn't make the subject matter appealing for most to learn.. In the case of my mom, She clearly see's where sound options exist within a weird stock market... Adults can learn new areas when they want to, and when they are ready, and often excel with NO school in that particular area...My dad, several engineering degree's PHd, immense math ability... wouldn't have a clue in the stock market.. He hates it...



Who'd have thought that it was a native american medicine doctor that discovered something science in our country couldn't. Dengue Fever. "When it rains the mice come".. She didn't learn that at University of New Mexico. Are the musicians writing the million dollar hit's in Julliard ?  or sitting around someplace with no formal music education ?  Sometimes being :Full Time: anything, or "Schooled" in an area, just adds blinders.  It doesn't enable a person to :see: or project what is actually happening. Often-times you MUST think outside of the block.  In such cases formal education does little... Doesn't teach a person with little insight, how to be insightful..

As to the "fool plays his own atty"....  Sure,  that's because atty's work within a VERY limited area of theory and rules..  Put Einstein in with a group of Chinese, or hispanic 3rd graders, and he'll appear too stupid to communicate with anyone.. Often times it is tougher to see clearly when we are cluttered by emotion too... Yet this example doesn't pertain to a person's ability in the stock market.. Assuming such, an investor would be a fool for putting his own money where his mouth is.. The best Atty shouldn't even defend himself... Still, he's a great atty. Thing is, some atty's CAN defend themselves, in certain cases clear minded investors can do excellent jobs of taking moderate risks.. and do better than the norm.. In other cases you are absolutely correct,  it's hard for us to be objective when it's our OWN interest's at stake..
JMO

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Northeast United States runner up for the "Singing Hall of Shame".

Big dog,

The statement about karaoke was not meant to be ugly in any fashion.  I was just trying to make a point and apparently it was miss understood.  You asked me how did I THINK I could do a better job,... I was trying to relate to your experience as a kJ host in your area.  You apparently do a very good job at it.  So I was asking you how do you THINK your good at it.  Obviously because you have the first hand knowledged to know whether you are or not.  Same with me on what investments I do.

I don't intend to lose $25,000.  Buying stocks is not putting all your eggs in one basket.

For a "litte" guy, a good portfolio should never be less than five different stocks, with no more than 20% of your total in any one. They should also be of five completely different sectors, such as  defense, oil, financials, etc.  And I don't think your should probably have more than ten or 12 different holdings.  Because each one requires about a hour of homework a week.  Jim Cramer's "Mad Money"  is an excelt show for us learners.  I don't try to buy everything he suggests. I do listen to what he has to say.

I may never "hit t big."  I'm content with that.  I just know I'm doing better than local banks and CD's can offer.

Again, no ugliness was intended.

Kelly

I've had to learn a little about investing, just to keep an eye on, and question the investors.

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Northeast United States runner up for the "Singing Hall of Shame".

E traders...... (The next dot com craze).... That's what the Etrade companies want you to do...   Trade everyday, several times a day.   It's big business.   They made it that way.   Sure they're going to make it look easy and fun and exciting.    Making money off of other people is that way.   They're getting rich hyping it and advertising that you can be as smart as the jerks that do it full time on Wallstreet (they can't even do it 100% right, with schooling and on the job training.)    What are your odds of success?    If every trade was a cell phone call, the calling plan would be $500 a month.   I highly doubt you could put that you day trade, on a resume and get hired in NY.    The Etrade companies have millions of daily trades, making [highlight=crimson]them[/highlight] very wealthy, with your money.   It doesn't matter if you use a broker or they Etrade take your money away.     You will still be broker.    I'm going to take E brain surgery classes and open an office.   If I advertise it and hype it enough, I'll get some takers.

I'm not saying you can't and won't make money, but it takes a big investment in time to do it and be really successful at it.    More than you think or want to admit.   My buddies brother did this years ago.  He was making about $100 a day, ON PAPER.   He got up early every morning and watched the new channels, then he watched the business channels.    Then he read a few newspapers.   Then he went to his real job.    All day long he had his girlfriend watch the news and read papers.    She would call him to give him updates.    Then he would make a move after 10AM, never before unless it was a real hot tip.    Then after more news and paper breaks, he would go home and do it some more.
It was his first full time job.    And his real job turned into his second full time job.

If you let the brokers do it, you can relax a little.    Think of the time you aren't spending with the family.   Think about all the worring about if you made the right move at the right time.    Way too much stress for me.    If you add up all of the Etrade $ and the money you think you made by yourself and compare it to what the investors could have done, without all of your time investment, the brokers will be ahead of the game.    Your time is worth money.   Don't ever think you do things for nothing.    If you're married the wife will let you know when it crosses the line, she'll bail.    Figure out what it pays you per hour.     I'm willing to bet, it's not as much as you think.

It's a very sophisticated science based on world politics, current events, history, geography, all the stocks and bonds and commodities, natural resources, the interest rate hikes, housing markets, famine, floods, drought, forest fires, bird flu epidemics, 9/11, global warming, who got elected, new leadership of companies, companies going bankrupt or on strike, natural and man made disasters and many, many, many factors.   You have to be very knowledgeable about all of these things and how they all tie together and what effects they have on each other.     It's not just pushing a button on a computer and money starts flying out.   What brand of computer would that be?   I'm getting a truck load.    There is a lot of thought and time and worry to go with it.

What does this have to do with being the best karaoke?   Sing two songs and call me in the morning.   All will be well again.    :hug:

It's been done.  People now nitpick, and worry about trite stuff.  They get attitudes if they hear you were out drinking heavily the night before their procedure. They get personal sometimes, and start asking you questions.  I got into more cutting edge procedures where fewer have caught on.... Rhoid Implants..  It's a growing thing in this great nation of ours.

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Northeast United States runner up for the "Singing Hall of Shame".

I've only been doing this since 2000.  Like everything else.  We don't learn or listen it seems until we get older.  Here I am 50 now and I'm thinking, why didn't I get started into this sooner.  Computers have put many big investments firms out of business or at least had to scale down.  Ameritrdae and TD Waterhouse have now merged.  They for sure know that the "little" guy is doing more of his own investing now.

For those of you who feel safer with a savings account, I encourage you to go to Emigrantdirect.com.  They are paying 4.65% on their savings now and NO minium deposit or required time to keep it there.  I use it too.  And YES they are FDIC insured just like my bank down town that pays a small .5% interest on the same type of account.  Emigrantdirect doesn't have the overhead that most banks have.

There is a good video clip on their site where 60 Minutes did a special on them.

Any of you younger folks need to look at some type of ongoing savings plan and /or investment NOW.  You'll keep putting it off and one day you'll wake up and your 50 like me and you're thinking, "Where'd the time go."

Between future retirement, Soscial Security, and hopefully some good investing, I should be okay.  I stay on my son now to get his butt in gear.  He's 26, but soical security may not be here when his time comes.

Kelly