Karaoke Forums

In my day job, I look at a lot of trends that drive sales and adoption. There are a great many things that influence and change habits. Most of it is relatively obvious stuff like the economy, changes in technology, new product release cycles, seasonal buying patterns, etc. Some is less obvious or requires dots to be connected between seemingly unrelated items. Sometimes when those dots connect it is can be rather eye-opening.

There has been a fair amount of discussion in the last couple of years that I have been on these forums about whether karaoke can survive or not. I personally believe that karaoke will survive, but I am now convinced that 5-10 years from now, there are going to be some significant cause and effect challenges that are going to dramatically change karaoke.

We all know that the current economy has impacted attendance. Debt and cost of living is up. Incomes aren't keeping pace. Unemployment is high. Cost of gas is high. All of which have a negative impact on attendance.

No matter what anyone thinks, piracy has had a negative impact on the industry as a whole.

Sound Choice is not producing, Chartbuster folded, Clark Music has shuttered, KJPro is going offline, overseas manufacturers are blocking access. Physical product is being pushed to the side in favor of online digital distribution and streaming.

Consumers are gaining access to more and more options for doing karaoke at home. Countless karaoke type games for game consoles like Playstation and Xbox. Karaoke Channel has their Karaoke app that streams directly to the Xbox console. Karaoke Channel and Digitrax have streaming services for PC's and mobile devices.

There is also the pressure being applied by manufacturer lawsuits and the threat of the "sleeping giants".

All of this combined makes for an extremely bleak future for karaoke, in public at bars.

Yet there is one extremely disturbing trend that has been taking place over the last 30 years that is just now starting to impact a great many businesses and will only get worse over the next decade.

In 1983, 46% of 16 year olds had a driver's license. In 2020, that percentage dropped to 28%. Studies are predicting this trend is going to continue even after the economy rebounds because teens feel less compelled to get a driver's license because they have access to their friends though social media. Studies indicate this trend extends to people in their 20's.

This equates to fewer people that own cars, or even have driver's licenses. Coupled with studies indicating that younger Gen Y, millennials, and the current teenage generation are spending more time at home and online, this doesn't bode well for any type of business that requires people to come to them. Online accessibility to TV, Movies, Entertainment and retail goods seems to be contributing to this trend.

When I think forward to 10 years from now and how many fewer people will be driving and how the ability to stay home and still have access to just about everything we need, I can see how bars and in turn, karaoke, could take a serious hit. It isn't that karaoke will be less popular, it's that karaoke will be possible to do in so many other formats that don't require one to travel to a bar. Add in the laws being proposed to reduce the blood/alcohol requirements for a DUI that are gaining steam around the US and I foresee a pretty dramatic change in karaoke.

If you don't think it could happen in 10 years, look at how karaoke has changed in the last ten.

I don't plan on stopping hosting any time soon, but after a long chat with my wife this evening about the things above, we have made a decision to not pursue karaoke as a sole source of income any longer. We have decided to make no further significant investments in hardware or music beyond the shows we have now. I feel so strongly about this that I am liquidating all assets beyond what is required to run my existing shows beginning immediately.

I am not trying to be a "sky is falling" type and there are a lot of things that could change over the next 10 years that prove me wrong. I am also not trying to convince anyone that they should get out while they can. But I do feel as if I was obliged to share my opinion on this and let everyone else make their own decisions.

I want to be wrong about this. I have also learned to trust my instincts and my "Spidey-Sense" has been tingling for quite a while now.

-Chris

ps....there are large number of news stories out their about the change in driving habits. This one sums up much of what I said above - http://www.cnbc.com/id/100880818

I am starting to see and hear reports of how these trends will impact businesses over the next decade. I think we will start to hear more about this over the next 3-5 years as the younger generation reaches drinking age but don't have cars or even driver's licenses. Retailers will start putting two and two together to figure out that fewer drivers means fewer in house customers. They will continue to look at how they can reach online consumers. Adapt or die. I haven't figured out how the traditional karaoke will be able to survive.

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-Chris

Just a note: The driving habit changes have, in many cases, been initiated by the states, and not the kids. Some now require longer probationary periods ( no driving without an adult), some have upped their age limits, etc....

This due to the incredibly high percentage of auto accidents within that age group.

As for the future of karaoke, we are already at a turning point:

1) The Sleeping giants being awakended by the actions of desparate people actually have the capability to put and end to it- or raise the cost of doing business incredibly, if they so desire.

2) More and more venue owners could attempt ( and fail, but not before poisoning that particular venue) to use the same equipment that they have at home that techie KJs showed themselves using ( a home lappy and MP3s)- tightening the market.

3) More and more crappy-oke hosts doing the same to more venues. The economy is in the crapper, and after watching other hosts use the aforementioned products available in their own homes, they see a cheap start up business.

4) SC can cause many other venues to be karaoke wary, cancelling existing shows or not starting in the first place- in an effort to avoid any waves in their business.

All that being said, karaoke runs in cycles. Starts with good shows, which then become overpopulated. Some folks see this and start "bleed-off" shows. Then more and more new KJs pop up in the "popular" phase. Eventually the market gets saturated. Then the lower quality shows start to die off, then the lower mids, and karaoke goes through a depression. However, the quality hosts survive, and the cycle renews itself. People like to sing. People like to feel like a star for a little bit. People like to have fun.

Just the way the business runs.

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"No Contests, No Divas, Just A Good Time!"

" Disc based and loving it..."

A lot of goo dpoints there, but on a personal note there's nothing quite like a public karaoke night in a pub. Serious singers can and will sing at home using the methods you suggested above, or indeed use the Singers' Showcase, but the public shows have about them a zest other means lack.

Maybe in cities there will be a significant drop off in kids driving, but in the suburbs driving is a necessity. If you have no car, you can't do ANYTHING, including work. The second thing, is people like to drink and hang out. Even the most geeky computer nerd likes to hang out and see friends. Bars won't be going anywhere. Karaoke is an ego thing. It does stroke your ego to hear applause. There is something much more fun about singing in a bar as opposed to singing in the home. Besides, unless you are going to buy a PA system and all the goodies that go along with it, singing with your computer just can't compete. The volume and power isn't there.

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I am the ONLY SANE 1 HERE

Also, let's speak plainly--single twenty and thirty-something folks go to the bar for another reason entirely--to meet new people of their chosen sexual orientation in order to get laid. That's a factor regardless of region--kids in small towns and major cities, well, want to meet new dates or one-night-stands.

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Co-host of The Greatest Song Ever Sung (Poorly), a karaoke-themed podcast

I think that the numbers will be down as more and more people do things at home. I already see singers holding their own parties and even a host who would come to our shows and invite people to his home for parties. The DUI laws will continue to have an impact although one host who used to be on here had commented the younger people grew up with it and in his area they were in the habit of having a designated driver.

I have also noticed a fear factor kicking in. Mothers don't want to let their kids out of their sight, people have a bigger awareness of shootings and bombings in public places, people are tired of being pulled over just for being out at night. People seem to be trying to create their own little world at home.

But I do think that people have a need to be gregarious and get into the excitement of a crowd and that will always be a driving force. Are sports games/events seeing a downturn? People still go to Superbowl Parties at bars even though they could watch at home because they like the comraderie of the crowd. There is also that segment who will be looking for a partner who will want opportunities to meet people and "court."

I think that the economy is the biggest factor right now and it is hard to predict what would happen if people had money to spend and felt safe about letting go of some of it.

Again - Not trying to convince anyone to give up hosting.

If us 35+ year old people try to frame the younger generations with how we did things, we are going to miss the mark completely. I have personal experience with this.

I have a 17 year old daughter. Last year I offered to buy her a car. She declined. She did take driver's ed, but still only has a provisional license and is in no rush to get her permanent license.

One of my best friends has 5 sons ages ranging from 22 to 30. He 3 youngest don't have driver's licenses (just have state issued ID's). They rely on public transportation and friends to get around.

I was driving at age 14 and secretly took my dads truck out so many times I can't remember until I had my own car at age 16. I mowed yards, had a paper route, babysat, sold macramé plant holders, sacked groceries....whatever I could to save up money for a car....because EVERYONE wanted a car. It was a status thing.

I still can't wrap my head around how a 16 year old wouldn't want a car and the independence. But the reality is that times aren't changing....they have already changed. Children are living at home longer, relying on friends, parents, and public transportation to get around.

All you have to do is roll the clock forward 5-10 years to see that there are going to be fewer and fewer people driving.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/arc ... rs/255001/

Now, there is also an increasing trend toward living in cities and more densely populated areas where public transportation is more plentiful. Maybe this will be a boon for karaoke in big cities simply because there will be more people and people don't need to drive to where the bars are.

http://www.unfpa.org/pds/urbanization.htm

But, the technological trends that allow people to do the same things at home that they would have to go out and spend money to do indicate differently and I believe we are feeling the pinch of this already.

When I was 16, I was out every weekend cruising, meeting friends, doing the underage drinking thing. 16 year olds today are Tweeting, Facebooking, having Skype parties, Facetime group chats. Those habits stick over time and become very hard to break.

-Chris

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-Chris

Memory implants will squash that need!

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KingBing Entertainment C'mon Up! I have a song for you!!! [font=MS Sans Serif][/font]

With the competition for jobs and the costs or maintaining a car these days, it would be difficult for a 16 year old to be in a car culture, especially if public transportation is available. But I can say that as far as the 21 year olds, they are going to bars in numbers and getting very drunk. They want to see the ladies and dance (No Shame posted this same point while I was typing plus I mentioned it above). They may be texting while they are there but they are still there.

I have a friend who is a DJ and the dance type events are packed. But as far as my own experience I have a big gap as far as karaoke singers. I have a group of little kids who love it, know how to use a mic and are very up on their music and wanting to sing. Then I have the 30 plus group that comes to my week night show. I'm missing the 21 to 30 crowd.

But then I am old. They might go if there was a younger host but the ones I experienced weren't singers so much as group screamers. There were some exceptions but they didn't last amid the destruction and mayhem.

I don't think things are totally stay at home vs go out. It doesn't explain why Dance Partys are bringing out young people in droves.

Some of the above mentioned trends I have been seeing for the longest time. The economy is still the biggest problem to overcome, many people have fallen out of the middle class and are now struggling just to feed their children. They don't have the disposable income to go out ant party every night. Most hosts I know are in their 50's or older. I think the current legal process has been more of a drag on the karaoke industry than a benefit. The next generation will be hard pressed not lose ground and end up with less than their parents. Now that banks have foreclosed on homes, the displaced families are forced to rent. So the single biggest asset for many of the middle class is gone, and former owners are now renters. This and stricter enforcement of the drinking and driving laws all add up to increased pressure on the bar business, and the karaoke industry dependent on it. Retirement is looking better all the time, it seems like a good choice to exist now.

By car insurance requirements if you have a "car licensed child" living in your home that has access (not even permission) to a vehicle, they have to be insured. That fact of having to pay for a childs insurance just because they have a license, will slow down a lot of parents from letting their under 18 year olds from having a license.

Chris,

This is a very interesting take. I was looking at an option of karaoke or something else two years ago. I took took the something else and that was trivia. More than one reason, but mainly the environment and legalities with growing a karaoke company. I didn't want to just create a job for myself, I wanted to create an income producing entity and the expense for doing that with karaoke was extensive. With the 1 to 1 requirement and the legal atmosphere, it was an easy decision. 26 weekly shows later, more by the way, than any 6 karaoke companies, I feel like I made the right decision. I just didn't see building a business with the karaoke product. we average 34 players at our shows, several of the shows top 100 players a night. Nobody has 100 karaoke singers, at any venue, any night. So I think you'll see karaoke moving towards private events and parties and away from the bars and restaurants, imo.

Interesting Chris,
This thread kinda caught me offguard. I didn't see it coming.
I remember when you first joined this forum because it was right around a month after I did. I remember how excited you were back then about starting your karaoke business. You had huge plans back then and caught a lot of flack by many of the senor members at that time. Your charisma, personality and charm eventually won them over and you quickly became a staple around here. I thought karaoke was going to be your life.

Anyway, I don't fault you for your decision. We all have to do what we have to do to protect ourselves, especially in business. I've been doing karaoke since 2009, but it's not my only source of income and probably never will be. However, I do plan on riding it out as long as I possibly can because I enjoy it. I am also a live soundman for bands and a dj. Between those 3 forms of self-employed occupations, I do pretty well.

As far as less drivers in the future? I just can't see that happening where I live. Public transportation here sucks big time. You have to have a car to get around here and it seems like we are getting more drivers each year. Traffic is getting worse all the time and they are constantly widening our roads to accommodate the increase in drivers. I admit that I haven't read the articles you posted, but just going off my own observation of what I see in my town, I don't think public karaoke in bars is going to die out because of fewer drivers on the road. We'll see...

Anyway, do you have any other plans for the future besides karaoke?

The book "Future Shock" was required reading in college when I attended many years ago. Even back then before the computer revolution, total information was doubling every 10 years and causing a problem with people keeping up. Then starting in the 80's the amount of total information started increasing four fold every 10 years. Today we are at the point where total information is increasing at a rate of 10 times every 10 years. This total information represents all information since the beginning of recorded history. In a way I'm kind of glad the way things are that young people are more careful about the underage drinking, and using the computer to stay in contact with their friends. My children are in their early twenties, my son lives and works in Chicago and sold his car he doesn't need it. He stays in contact with all his friends on face book, as does my daughter who is still in college. When I was their age I was still in the military, and had other concerns. Different situations for different generations. I think you are right about one thing Chris karaoke as the sole source of income is not a good option. A karaoke host I knew who also played in a band told me never to quit your day job, and I made a point of not going totally karaoke hosting, until I had retired from my government job. It is not a good idea to put all of your eggs in one basket.

Well, the issue of less teens being interested in driving is much more complex. There's also a new trend of kids living with their parents longer too. I read a study that shows there's also a much higher percentage of post college age kids living at home longer, and sometimes until they're near 30. This blew me away. I moved out of my mom's house as soon as I could at 18. Back then it wasn't socially acceptable to stay home with mom and dad, but now it's viewed by youth as the smart thing to do. The world is changing in all kinds of ways and it's tough to predict where it's headed, let alone why it's happening.

As far as karaoke is concerned, I don't think these other things you mentioned affect it as much as you think. I agree with Lord Burnstrum in his assessment that regardless of all the little karaoke phone apps, the karaoke channel, and all the ways to sing at home, there will ALWAYS be a desire for singers to have a public audience to sing to, and the ONLY easy way to do that (short of starting your own band), is karaoke at a public bar. Karaoke will slowly be accepted in other types of venues, but I think bars will be the dominant venue for many years to come. Gambling just got legalized here in Maryland, and one of the casinos already has karaoke at the casino. I've also heard of karaoke being setup in the middle of malls. Singing in public was a novel idea when karaoke started, and originally when bars were the only acceptable venue, and I hate to say it, but I think the alcohol was almost "needed" to make it acceptable. Think about it. The idea of just getting up and singing in public was something people just didn't do, and for people to do it the first time took some guts, and with alcohol being known as liquid courage, the match of bars and karaoke was a natural mix. Singing has evolved tremendously since I was in high school. Shows like American Idol did wonders for the karaoke industry, and also for singing as an acceptable activity. All these new ways to stream karaoke to individuals is evidence of this.

As far as the future need for professional KJs, this isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Like I said, karaoke is slowly being accepted in public venues that aren't bars, and KJs will be needed to run these shows. There's always been this underlying fear of KJs that venue owners could just buy their own systems and run it themselves, but that rarely works and here's why. To be a "good" KJ these days, it takes quite a bit of know how. It takes someone who knows all about audio equipment, computers and karaoke software, how to acquire the music and manage the collection and keeps books updated both on paper and now online too. A good KJ also maintains either a web site and/or a facebook page to keep his or her singers informed about shows and upcoming events.

The ONLY real threat to American KJs is the American music publishers, and this is only a problem in America. KJs in other countries do not have this problem, but if this new American policy of only being able to rent music or stream it continues, and it actually works, other countries will follow suite, and yes, then the profession of being a professional KJ WILL be in jeopardy, and here's why. If the American music publishers win this war and are able to completely centralize control of all the music and other countries follow, we will live in a world where all karaoke software will be connected to central servers. Sounds easy, and it is, but here's the problem. If all karaoke apps are automatically updated with the latest music, and hence automatically updating any online song books, all those tasks that us KJs used to have to know will be so automated and easy that bar owners will eventually be able to purchase a single automated complete system that won't require any additional work, and THAT is when the KJ will start to appear like an unnecessary component.

That being said, if this day ever does come, I will totally blame all of the current KJs who are helping the American music publishers win this war. These are the KJs who use the karaoke cloud and refuse to download songs from other countries. These are the KJs who are helping eliminate their own jobs and they're just too dumb to see it. The future of our profession is in our own hands. I just pray there are more smart KJs than dumb ones. Only time will tell.

Kind of like "low information voters".

Believe me, the discussion my wife and I had around this was a long and painful one. We both want to do a karaoke business. We love the industry. We have invested a lot of time, money, and energy in the last 3 years into making this happen. We just struggle with how we are going to make a long term living at the income level we desire. We believe it is possible but the amount of work to make it happen and the uncertainty that we both envision taking place in the next 10 years are just something we don't want to gamble our future on.

Like any good investment strategy, we are looking at diversity. I have only done a handful of weddings but I know they can be very lucrative. Though here in the Pacific Northwest, we have a short wedding season and it is very competitive.

We have looked at doing trivia and 5 moths ago I was practically throwing money at one company in an attempt to get started but they moved too slowly and it fell through. It left a sour taste so I have not pursued it further though I am slowly coming back around.

For now I have refocused my efforts on my day job. I love what I do and have always thoughtI could work for Microsoft for the rest of my life. Everyday in the computer/software/IT industry gives me something new to learn and play with. That has a strong appeal for me.

As I noted, I will continue hosting out of the love of doing it. I believe there will be a lot of churn in the karaoke industry in the next 10 years. I feel that anyone that doesn't believe this is fooling themselves. Those that want to weather the storm need to stay on top of what is happening and be prepared for a bumpy ride. Especially those that rely on karaoke as a sole source of income. Again, not impossible, but I think it is going to be way more work than most people realize.

-Chris

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-Chris

Have to agree with this... there is no adrenaline kick singing in your living room...People will always need a public place to be able to perform...

Singing at home is really only good for practicing, and learning new songs.

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I am the ONLY SANE 1 HERE

I've had 18-25 ppl parties that felt as good or better than singing in a bar where most aren't even paying attention. I do sing at home by myself all the time. I don't need even one person around to work on songs for two or three hours.