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Steven Kaplan
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Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 2:31 pm |
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Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2005 6:48 pm Posts: 13645 Been Liked: 11 times
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Quote: Will the KJ become outdated & replaced with computers?
OK, Let me first say I respect ALL opinions brought up. I'm going to come as close to putting my money where my fingers are as I can. This is what I predict will be the case by 2017 (ten years time) regarding Karaoke and "bars".
As long as Karaoke exists as a main stand-alone area of entertainment in bars, it will require a LIVE person to run it (which will be 5 more years tops). Otherwise Karaoke might exist off on a side someplace and the closest to Karaoke as you now know it in "computerized" form will be a CAVS JB jukebox with the self-service (push-button selection) menu.
In 10 years there will be less alcohol consumed *in bars* and there will be fewer bars due to stricter national laws killing alcohol serving establishments revenue (alcohol IS a huge factor getting people out weekday nights). Surviving bars won't have people that wish to "get up on stage and sing", since I believe that too is part of "fad" behaviour and I do believe less alcohol intake will mean much less of a desire to perform onstage for the bar patron who's not an entertainer by nature. I also believe there always WILL be *dancing* at bars because THAT is an aspect of mating ritual in younger folks so you will see an increase in demand for DJ's that might offer SOME Karaoke, dancing and some aspect of music will be what's timeless. Karaoke as a stand-alone entertainment in bars will be a thing of the past by 2017, so as a KJ today you'll need to be DJ's that have a Karaoke selection, but this will be in the very few bars that payout to bring in entertainment weekdays in the suburban and rural areas- there will be KJ's that switched to DJ's that still have Karaoke media left over, and like today hack DJ's even in ten years) It'll be back to live guitar type duo; mellower ambience in most places and most *bars* as we know them today will be lesser populated with a coffeehouse lounge (70's pub) type environment with TV sets, pool tables, virtual reality arcade type games, etc, (but these live duo or solo acts won't get paid much assuming they play weekdays, they will be hobbyists and the exception. The norm won't be weekday entertainment brought in at all) and MOST bars surviving will have OTHER stuff to do for those that care to get up and do something besides dance such as *BACK to the past stuff* IE. Pinball, foosball, table bowling, table basketball, lower tech stuff meaning even trampolining if ceiling height permits. This will be very affordable stuff that a male and female can do together, couple stuff because that will be what enables surviving bars to exist besides the older ball watching singles guys. none-the-less *overhead* on such entertainment forms will be minimal. Inter-bar competition that was once baseball and bowling will take place in an internet venue with a large screen monitor, and bars will internationally challenge one another to Internet-type competitions using virtual reality feature (THIS will be the extent of technology at bars in the short-term 10 year future). Most bars that survive in the suburban areas will be restaurant/bars where people that linger after eating a meal will be content sitting and listening and clapping and than leaving by midnight weekdays and in suburban areas there'll be bars that switched to private club status that are also game-type areas, Few weekends will have live entertainment, but that will be the preference in most places that now have Karaoke. The bars termed "nightclubs" or membership "clubs" will form to exempt themselves of "public" laws restricting bars when possible (district permitting) however most will have NOTHING except television sets and pool tables with sportsbar type entertainments you saw early early 1980's weekdays (With little exception outside of wealthier tourist areas) on Sundays-wednesdays. Singles bars will exist of course because people still wish to meet, and drink DESPITE laws however *these bars* will not be generating a revenue conducive to paying entertainment well on weekday nights in most locations nor will they need to because singles that want to meet will go to meet at these places regardless of what they do or do not offer for entertainment, the entertainment is the people that go and bars will be mostly closed by midnight weekdays, "Ye ol pub" atmosphere will be what we see MOSTLY in less affluent suburban areas. Bar payout will be REALLY hurting in most suburban areas, rural areas I honestly don't know, but this will likely really fluctuate depending on geography and what will be varying district laws. The BIG wealthier bars will have live bands as will most bars that can afford Karaoke today, and Hard Rock type bars will operate exactly as they are today ! There will still be sites online such as this however, (although fewer of them) and here in Karaoke Scene in addition to my having accumulated close to 100,000 posts I'll still be arguing with Ollie when he manages to sneak past the nurses station wearing diapers in "The Home" to get online.
JMHO that I'm trying to narrow down to a time period because I think this is important too given this topic.
Also, I'm going to try REALLY hard to make this my last post in this thread because I have nothing more to offer ! Bars will have SOME higher tech stuff as entertainment within the operating bars, but for the most part bars will function at a MUCH lower technological level than we see today, it isn't what draws people to bars, and it can be a major source of repair headache at inopportune times ! With exception of wealthy tourist areas that will have top of the line live entertainment, Some of THESE might have karaoke, with DJ's, standup comedy, etc. We're going to be seeing mid-70's early 80's without the disco in many more bars atmosphere in 2017 in suburban areas and affluent tourist areas alike. Difference being there will be less than 1/3 the bars as 1977 in 2017 in most suburbs
Remember this is ONLY my guess ! Not meant to discredit any other beliefs !
ADDED IN:
I believe DUI laws, and antialcohol laws will be A LOT more strict ! People will be afraid of getting caught drunk during a time period that is shifting towards antialcohol or prohibition. In fact, get caught drinking and you risk losing all your medical benefits and insurance policies. DESPITE where you are seen drinking. Policies won't cover somebody who drinks or smokes. Such behaviour will have been established as quite self destructive in 2017. Marijuana will be legal to purchase at all stores that sell cigarettes, to the over 21 group but will be controlled and sold as a weaker analgesic substance and taxed thru the roof with the disclaimer that ingesting smoke is dangerous for ones health ! Not sure if bars will offer pot or not in moderation assuming they are private club status.
_________________ Northeast United States runner up for the "Singing Hall of Shame".
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oneofakind864
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Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 7:44 pm |
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Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 1:09 am Posts: 506 Location: san francisco Been Liked: 0 time
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You go Steve..that was well thought out- but also consider that we now have entire clothing lines and seqments of the population that consider themsleves part of the "club" scene. I think it's getting larger that ever. Possibly in smaller area but in the larger metropolitan areas public transportation will be the nore because owning individual transportation will have become too expensive in the way or taxes, fuel, and parking. So drinking anf driving won't be an issue. You may have a point about the insurance ans I have to agree with that and the statements about pot. But I just can't see drinking and bars ever becoming "extinct" or even close...heck when alcohol was prohibited in the 30's "speakeasies" were at their MOST popular. Anytime you tell a population they "can't have something- it instantly becomes "more" desirable. Smoking is bigger than ever in todays youth and they know 1005 the dangers..Pot smokers are more prevalent tht ever...and it still isn't legal. Unless a foreign power takes over the country- I can see the laws becoming stricter...I only see more liberal coming into play( unless it benefits some heavy hitting lobbyists) Tobacco, alcohol, oil, etc....jsut something to consider...but you did make some valid points...What you are saying is the sucky shows will be phased out and the larger ones near metropolitan areas that DO survive will become classified more as "live entertainment" like a band would be? Not your weekday affordable "draw" for the joe public bar. You may have a point...but I still think the up and coming generation will love and demand it as much as mine had. Oh and for the shows that survive...wouldn't that mean a raise in pay? Supply and demand and all that. Less shows...more demand on fewer Kjs...?
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Steven Kaplan
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Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2007 5:10 am |
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Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2005 6:48 pm Posts: 13645 Been Liked: 11 times
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Quote: Also, I'm going to try REALLY hard to make this my last post in this thread because I have nothing more to offer ! But today's another day, and things change <shrug> Quote: but also consider that we now have entire clothing lines and seqments of the population that consider themsleves part of the "club" scene. Clothing style is subject to "fad", as are changes in style. If in 2017 Coffee house entertainment at Barnes and Noble is popular you might see horn rim glasses and long 40's dresses come back as they did briefly around 1980. Forties style womens clothing that is. Fad also evolves with the times. or creates styles as you mentioned. Quote: I think it's getting larger that ever. Yes, and it's always evolving. Big in college campuses and cities might not mean doable in suburban areas. College kids will party with or without alcohol, and with or without bars. With or without entertainment, and certainly without paying out to hire Karaoke. Dormitory mixers will always be huge. As I stated among younger and even older singles (that wish to meet) clubs of some sort will cope. I'm not sure what college campuses will have in ten years.. Yet I'm talking suburban and rural area bars revenue hurting, aren't these the biggest sources of most KJ's income ? assuming Karaoke even IS desireable in 10 years ? These bars still would have less revenue. People wanting to meet people is a given, that won't change. THAT will be the strength the keeps SOME revenue coming in. That of course and couples that wish to get out and linger after dinner weekdays, yet I don't feel Karaoke will be a large draw in such clubs in 2017. Quote: Possibly in smaller area but in the larger metropolitan areas public transportation will be the nore because owning individual transportation will have become too expensive in the way or taxes, fuel, and parking. So drinking anf driving won't be an issue. Exactly my assumption. "Suburban and rural bars". Larger cities, and metro areas will function in a similar fashion as you see today. As will tourist areas where people don't have to fear DUI laws because heck, People in cities are going to spend somewhat differently (as will vacationers) and DUI laws (assuming what happened in the outskirts of Austin Texas 6 months back doesn't happen again -BUSTS in the bars) won't be an issue, nor will travel in many large cities since you WALK to the bar, or take a little bus or subway. The large wealthy bars will function as you see them today. Some will likely have a DJ that offers Karaoke, but I think many will be back to live entertainment.. Assuming these city bars and tourist area bars do have some karaoke, will this be able to help the suburban, and rural area KJ's out've work though ? Hard Rock cafe hiring big ticket musicians might SLIGHTLY help smaller local bands in terms of being "opening acts", but Karaoke isn't subject to this type of phemom I don't think. Not to the extent that the KJ could take home a paycheck on weekdays, and assuming there is Karaoke it'll be SO very competitive, that who knows..maybe a tiny percentage of those providing it in metropolitan areas will still have SOME work. If a few NYC bars keep Karaoke, and most are back to live entertainment how will this help the bars in the suburban areas assuming Karaoke is no longer at a novelty stage (which is of course what we are discussing might or might not be the case, I'm aware that many of you don't believe public will lose interest in having Karaoke as entertainment at night clubs). Quote: But I just can't see drinking and bars ever becoming "extinct" or even close...heck when alcohol was prohibited in the 30's "speakeasies" were at their MOST popular. Anytime you tell a population they "can't have something- it instantly becomes "more" desirable. As they say, Death, Taxes, and Package stores will likely always exist. Alcohol is a POWERFUL substance, people won't give it up all-together.. Even in the older days you had an abundance of private party, home, closet drinkers, and the self-medicators, but in dry areas, and areas that had "Open container" public laws.. prohibiting being in public with alcoholic beverage type laws DID work ! Even among we college kids, (I went to several schools in Upstate NY, and even we kids would have to spend a night in jail, we didn't like this concept) People don't like getting busted by the cops get pulled over driving legally drunk and manditory 1-3 nights in jail is QUITE an incentive to help those you believe will say "If you say I can't drink, I will drink" reconsider ! Losing their license is another BIG BIG issue, because THAT isn't only something all need, it's public humiliation, affects jobs income and lifestyle. When laws are stringent the rebels will think twice ! Quote: ( unless it benefits some heavy hitting lobbyists) Tobacco This is a fascinating area of debate, tobacco will be sold, the government LOVES the tax money. But do smokers (indoor clean-air act crimping THEIR rights) have strong lobbying strength like the NRA does ? HECK NO ! In some ways surprising, in other ways not. Regarding what Kids do... There's certainly a lot of truth to what you say, even with AIDS as a scare, college campus sexual promiscuity exists, kids really do think they are invincible at certain points in there life however regarding "smoking is as ardent an activity today as ever" ? I don't know. My guess would be that today since there is a heightened health awareness among many of the young, and smoking is known to be a strong health hazard "warnings today are also stronger than ever", without seeing statistics I would venture a guess that smoking today among the teenage group IS NOT at all what it was in the 1950's and 1960's when a VERY high percentage of 16 and over were smoking. Quote: Oh and for the shows that survive...wouldn't that mean a raise in pay? Supply and demand and all that. Less shows...more demand on fewer Kjs...?
Not sure, because I don't believe the person entertaining will just be "KJ". I'm maintaining that "shows that survive" will have the DJ that also has some Karaoke and this might be one night a week. Assuming the shows that survive with Karaoke are a VERY low percentage, how will that help most KJ's out've work ? IE... There are 3 and 4 piece bands today that can still find work in bars. Do they get paid well ? Usually not. Are there enough to keep all of the musicians working that were employed in the 1970's ? Certainly not. Supply and demand also equates to many competing for the lesser demand assuming the supply is abundant.
_________________ Northeast United States runner up for the "Singing Hall of Shame".
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timberlea
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Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2007 5:36 am |
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Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2002 12:41 pm Posts: 4094 Location: Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada Been Liked: 309 times
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Everyone is saying the DUI laws are killing the bar business. I think you're wrong on that. If you can afford to go out and get drunk, you can afford to take a cab home or have a designated driver. I for one am glad the DUI laws are strict. I don't want to be a victim of one of these idiots when I head home after a show.
A quality show will always be around. In my city we have lots of hosts come and go, but there are maybe 4 or 5 hosts that have been around for 10 years and only two of those have been doing it constantly for 16 years. Those two (Laurie The Guy who I manage and a host named Jackie Smith) offer great sound and selection but are definitely two different personalities. Theey will always have shows til the day they retire or die. I'm sure in many places people can mention local shows that have been around that long. So quality will not onlyalways survive but flourish.
_________________ You can be strange but not a stranger
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Steven Kaplan
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Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2007 5:44 am |
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Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2005 6:48 pm Posts: 13645 Been Liked: 11 times
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Quote: If you can afford to go out and get drunk, you can afford to take a cab home or have a designated driver.
Sorry Tim, This isn't practical, or even logical so it affects bar business. Do you think each and every time I decide to go out on a whim because I'm bored, there's a sober person just waiting to escort me while I do my thing unimpeded ? I don't want a chaperone hanging around me when I want freedom to meet a female ! and that is assuming I can find a "hang around" to begin with. Not as if there's a long list of such people ! and NO, affording to get "drunk" doesn't mean it's as affordable to pay and find a taxi to get me home. That's quite an expense around here ! For that reason, the DUI laws will keep me from going out ! Not that this is bad, true, however it does ultimately affect the business of a bar I'd have gone to.
Now that said, YES ! The DUI laws do makes sense BUT to say they don't impede singles-bar lifestyle, and bar business is an erroneous statement !
Example of how this isn't practical.
Around here Tim, there is one small taxi that doesn't always operate 20 miles away. Few will pay the cost to travel 20 miles and wait over an hour (if lucky) for this guy. People are not THAT patient and wealthy ! Additionally, finding designated drivers is not easy, and usually not worth it.. Reason being, In MY particular case,
Single guy wants to go out to bar ALONE, to meet females.. Usually go out on an impulse/whim which meant having a few drinks (when I drank that is, and that would make me legally drunk), it was NOT easy to find a designated sober person to shuttle me around, nor would I want a proctor ! It's not fun for that sober person either on a weekday night.. What do they get out've it, and how available to you believe spare escorts are ? These individuals become a babysitter to escort me around so I can try to get laid in essence. Why would I want another person with me assuming I'm trying to "pick up" women ? They were usually thorns in my side. Many males that go out to meet women go out ALONE ! another person can be baggage. It DOES complicate things. The designated babysitter/driver area really isn't as easy as one may think outside of college type areas, not many males have a sober sidekick they can call who will shuttle them around, or who even can leave his wife, schedule on a whim. While YES there is merit to DUI laws, that's a WHOLE different side of this.. There are pros and cons. Remember, this isn't criticizing DUI laws, it's saying THEY DO harm alcohol serving establishments without any doubt !
Fact is, if a person needs to find a designated sober person to drive them too and from a bar, this WILL hurt bar business !
_________________ Northeast United States runner up for the "Singing Hall of Shame".
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johnny reverb
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Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2007 9:05 am |
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Extreme Poster |
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Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2007 1:05 pm Posts: 3376 Been Liked: 172 times
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A few years ago, a went to a casino by me, and they had a section called the karaoke pit. You got your song number from a book, handed it to a bar tender, and he handed you a wireless mike. He looked at you, you gave him the thumbs up, and he punched your song number into a cumputer. Don't want to sound like I'm bragging... ...but the people gambling in that section, stopped gambling, and it got pretty quiet while I sang my song. When I was done, they gave me a big round of applause, and turned to their machines, and almost instantly the bells and whistles filled the room again. There were not a lot of singers there, but I doubt the casino would want people to stop gambling.. .....the casino has changed ownership a couple of times, and I've never been back since......just not much of a gambler....
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mrdelicious2
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Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2007 10:37 am |
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Joined: Tue Oct 03, 2006 8:28 am Posts: 522 Location: Michigan, USA Been Liked: 0 time
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Well I certainly hope it's not "just a fad".....I have way too much time, money, sweat, tears, etc invested to only be around for a few years. I plan on doing this for a couple of decades......party/party/party!
_________________ [highlight=midnightblue]MrD - KJ/DJ Specialist Visit MrD on facebook - mrdsentertainment & on myspace - larrynance[/highlight]
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